Progressives Every Day: Lessons learned from swing counties and rural blowouts
And notes before the holiday
Welcome to a rare Wednesday morning edition of Progressives Everywhere!
I was all set to send the newsletter out last night, but then I got an email from an editor at The Washington Post giving me the heads up that the op-ed I co-wrote would be published early this morning. Instead of sending out an alert just about the op-ed, I figured I’d spare you an extra email and just include everything in one newsletter.
Note: Unless something crazy happens or some big burning scoop comes my way, this is likely the last newsletter I’ll send out this week. I’m working on some stories and interviews that should get rolling after the long weekend, so if I don’t send out a big edition on Sunday, I’ll definitely send a member-only email with all the important stories I hope you’ll have missed while relaxing over the preceding four days.
Important News, Notes, and Things to Read
And here’s that Washington Post op-ed, with a little excerpt:
There is certainly a structural disadvantage to being the party that feels any kind of moral responsibility to keep people safe: The decision by many campaigns to stay cautious instead of innovating safe new ways of canvassing wound up sabotaging Democrats in a multitude of states.
When all the results are final, Trump will have won the second-most votes in American history and the highest Republican share of the minority vote in 60 years. Democratic weakness in rural minority counties cost them in North Carolina and Texas. Remarkably, the same thing happened in many urban communities. Trump improved his vote share in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and many other cities where his campaign hit the ground early. (Some of the canvassers they hired may not have been paid, but that’s just a built-in risk of working for Trump.)
Even in the suburbs, where Biden showed strength, a lack of canvassing appears to have hurt down-ballot candidates.
Georgia Senate runoff updates
But hey, some good news: While I noted on Sunday that outside groups will be canvassing to get out the vote for the Senate runoffs in Georgia, the state party is also returning to the in-person ground game. It’s great news, obviously, but I couldn’t help but laugh at this little bit:
“In close consultation with public health experts and an epidemiologist, we’ve created an in-person voter contact program with strict protocols that will allow organizers and volunteers to safely register new voters and knock doors across the state,” [Ossoff and Warnock spokespersons] Lipper and Clark said. …
The Ossoff and Warnock campaigns require volunteers to wear masks at all times, to step six feet back from doors before anyone answers, to use hand sanitizer after touching any surfaces and to affirm that they are free of any symptoms and have not been in contact with anyone suspected or confirmed of being positive for Covid-19 before their shifts.
As we note in the op-ed, unions and activist groups were doing the exact same over the summer and early fall, and that was under far less dangerous COVID-related conditions. Still, it’s nice to see the party learning and improving!
And one more bit about Georgia: This new 30-second spot from Raphael Warnock is pretty solid and clever:
Of course, I’d much rather that he focus on stimulus and economic help for people, but at least it’s got some personality.
Actually, one more bit about Georgia: Here’s a pretty good interview with Stacey Abrams, who somehow avoids gloating and focuses on how the Georgia Democratic Party overcame a mountain of disadvantages, from gerrymandering to mass voter suppression, to flip blue for Biden this year.
Swing state data and what we’ve learned
While the op-ed focuses on tactics, the ideological shift within the Democratic Party goes hand-in-hand with how it reaches out to voters. The Guardian has a good analysis of 10 swing counties that tell the story of this election, with white suburban voters inching toward Democrats and Latino voters in many places making pretty substantial swings towards Republicans.
Both trends played out in Maricopa County, Arizona, which makes it a solid microcosm for what went down this year:
Maricopa was one of the linchpins of the Biden strategy of flipping white suburban voters – which he did just enough to win. Precinct results show Biden doing clearly better than Clinton in the white-majority suburban areas. They also show the result of Democrats’ failure to keep their margins among working-class Latino voters, especially in the seventh congressional district, which was carried by Bernie Sanders in the primary. Within Maricopa we can see the results of the trade-off Democrats made to win this election.
Simply put, Democrats bet it all on ginning up outrage over Trump’s bad temper and mishandling of COVID-19. That message appealed to their small dollar donors in the suburbs, but clearly, they’re going to have to offer a more aspirational, specific, and aggressive platform and message if they’re going to win back the support of working people.
Yes, I’ve said that many times before, but it’s nice to have the data to back it up. Here’s another example, from Ohio’s Mahoning Valley:
Mahoning went for Hillary Clinton in 2016, Obama by over 25 points twice, and even Michael Dukakis by over 25 points. Biden’s shocking loss this year shows a combination of further erosion among white working-class voters and among black voters. Mahoning represents perhaps the final nail in the coffin of the class-based New Deal coalition that has shaped American politics since 1932.
That last bit is a bit dramatic — it can be turned around, but Democrats don’t have much time left to do it.
Rural Regions are really red
Iowa has become pretty solid red territory over the last few cycles, in large part due to rural America moving decisively towards Republicans. This piece at Iowa Starting Line looks at Democrats’ struggles in rural American from a number of angles; this year’s terrible showing, activists say, was exacerbated by candidates’ lack of in-person events, but more generally, they say that the national party’s consultant-driven messaging just hasn’t really connected.
Also, Republicans are really good at lying:
“Joni Ernst could have been doing a lot more for that issue of renewable fuels and renewable energy in the past six years than she has done. But nevertheless, on the campaign trail, the Republican team came in strong for renewable fuels. She has been successful in wrapping herself around Trump and then distancing herself from some of the decisions that have been made, like the EPA,” Judge said of Ernst’s support for Trump’s oil-aligned Environmental Protection Agency administrators.
Every vote counts: One of the few remaining uncalled House races, for the open seat in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, is going down to the wire. The candidates are separated by a few dozen votes and with some counties still recounting their ballots, the race may well come down to one single vote.
And in New York…
Democrats have officially clinched a supermajority in the state Senate, giving them (theoretical) power to override Andrew Cuomo’s itchy veto finger.
Progressives, who have been very public about their distaste for the governor’s bullying style and refusal to budge on a wealth tax, have come out swinging with talk of legalizing marijuana (which Cuomo supports under certain conditions), enacting that wealth tax, and fixing the criminal justice system.
First and foremost, though, will be passing a further eviction moratorium and even canceling rent for as long as this state of emergency lasts. In fact, last week saw the first legal eviction in NYC since the pandemic began. Without drastic measures, the city is facing an absolute human rights disaster come January.
Amazon workers fight the power
In Alabama, Amazon warehouse workers filed to hold a unionization election, something the e-commerce (and everything else) conglomerate has fought tooth and nail for years.
It’ll be an uphill struggle against what will no doubt be a brutal intimidation and misinformation campaign by the company, which was just revealed to be employing literal Pinkerton spies against its workers. Even still, there’s likely not going to be a better time to do this than right now —19,000 Amazon warehouse workers had tested positive for COVID-19 as of October 1st, a number that has undoubtedly further skyrocketed over the past two months.
Oh, and by the way, Jeff Bezos has made $73 billion during the pandemic, so don’t let anyone tell you that Amazon can’t afford to pay and protect workers.
Canceling student debt is good politics
While candidate polling certainly needs to be fixed, surveys on issues continue to be more accurate (see: progressive policies that passed by huge margins on Election Day). With that in mind, I feel encouraged by this new poll about canceling up to $50k in college debt, which has topline support of 60% of the country and looks even better when you look beneath the hood:
Eighty-four percent of Democratic voters support Biden cancelling up to $50,000 in student debt per person along with 57 percent of independent voters.
By contrast, 66 percent of Republican respondents oppose the measure.
Seventy-three percent of 18 to 34 year olds and 68 percent of 35 to 49 year olds are in favor of cancelling the student debt while 50 percent of 50 to 64 year olds and 54 percent of 65 year olds or older oppose it.
Basically, Democrats and people 49 and under love the idea, independents really dig it as well, and old Republicans are against it. When I wrote about cementing a generational majority and not worrying about what people who will never vote for you think about it, this is what I meant.
Have a great Thanksgiving weekend
It’s been a very strange and tragic year and it’ll be a Thanksgiving like no other. Whether you have some quarantine partners or you’re eating dinner for one on Thursday, know that you’re not alone — I’m incredibly thankful for the support you’ve provided the newsletter this year!
There will be over 50 million people facing hunger this year, new projections show. If you have a few spare bucks, consider donating to a local food bank — you can find one around you (or anywhere else) right here.
Wait, before you go!
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