Suddenly winnable districts and the GOP's new abortion ban (Part 1)

The map keeps expanding thanks to the scumbags

Welp, they’re really doing it. The news this evening out of Washington is that that Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham will tomorrow introduce a bill that would create a nationwide ban on abortion. Though initially reported as a ban on abortion “later in pregnancy,” all signs point to the bill closing off all reproductive freedom after just 15 weeks of pregnancy.

The audacity is shocking, but not surprising. When the Supreme Court’s hyper-reactionary majority overturned Roe v. Wade in June, the far-right majority insisted that it was sending the matter of bodily autonomy back to the states. This was clearly bullshit.

If those judges had recorded audio of Samuel Alito reading his majority decision in the court chamber, his whine would have been so regularly overpowered by the noise of the other conservative justices licking their lips like cackling cartoon hyenas that it’d be virtually unintelligible.

They knew that Republicans would try to enact a nationwide abortion ban, and less than three months later, GOP senators have introduced a bill to do just that. The “Protecting Pain-Capable Unborn children from Late-Term Abortions Act” is a work of profound cynicism, extreme stupidity, and obvious desperation.

Republicans must have dug deep into the polls and thought that they could thread the needle between their rabid Christian base and the broader pro-choice public by drawing a line at 15 weeks. Before the Dobbs decision, a ban at 15 weeks polled a bit better than six-week and far better than total abortion bans, but it still didn’t hit 50% approval. More importantly, nuance in this debate — or any, really — is a thing of the past. If polling on the particulars of issues determined elections, Democrats would always win.

Plus, the title of the act is a string of lies, from the timing of a fetus’s ability to feel pain (it’s only possible at around 24 weeks) to the characterization of 15 weeks as late in pregnancy. My suspicion is that the public will through the GOP’s pathetic attempts to reframe an issue that’s threatening their once inevitable midterm romp. Republicans are pushing their biggest weak spot front and center, promising the worst possible outcome to people already mobilizing against it.

With that in mind, tonight we’ve got the first part of a two-part look at the shifting political map and the districts that have suddenly become potentially winnable. Each of them have three things going for them: MAGA scumbags for Republican candidates, a lean that isn’t red enough to make a MAGA scumbag candidate a slam dunk, and a viable Democrat on the ballot.

It’ll still be an uphill climb, given both the redistricting advantage that the GOP was allowed to gerrymander for itself and the sheer amount of money coming down the pike from conservative Super PACs, but these are real races now and very much worth watching.

Part two is coming tomorrow night.

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by Natalie Meltzer

Improved numbers, policy victories, and triumphant special-election results now clearly indicate that the political winds are at Democrats’ backs with just nine weeks until Election Day. 

There have been five special House elections since the Dobbs decision, and Democrats have won or seriously outperformed their expected margins in each of them. In an election that many consider to be a bellwether for the midterms, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in New York’s 19th Congressional District with a campaign that highlighted abortion and corporate greed as the central issues.

The resounding defeat of an antiabortion ballot measure in conservative Kansas further demonstrated that Americans’ overwhelming support for reproductive rights translates into strong voter turnout.

In response to these results, scores of Republican candidates have recalibrated their anti-choice stances in a transparent and desperate attempt to curry favor with voters, though the GOP’s new Senate bill will make that deception more difficult. Other Republicans are doubling down on their hardline policies; at least they’re honest?

Not all of the Democrats below are candidates we’d endorse in competitive primaries, and surely some would anger us in office. They just so happen to be running against bigots, lunatics, and morons.

Arizona’s 1st

Arizona’s new 1st Congressional District includes much of the region east and northeast of Phoenix, including Scottsdale, Rio Verde, Cave Creek and Paradise Valley. President Joe Biden carried the district by 1.5% in 2020, according to POLITICO’s Redistricting Tracker.

Seventy-five percent of the district used to be in the former 6th Congressional District, which has been represented by Republican David Schweikert since 2013 (Schweikert represented the state’s 5th Congressional District in 2011-2012). 

Now this self-described “accountant on steroids” running as “America’s trusted Conservative” is seeking a seventh term in the newly purple 1st district. 

Schweikert successfully fended off a well-funded Democratic challenger in 2020 but has been dogged by ethics and campaign finance violations, racking up a total of $175,000 in fines from Congress and the Federal Elections Commission since 2020 for “flagrant and egregious violations of campaign finance law.”

If the campaign finance violations were not evidence enough that this guy is a slimeball, he has repeatedly gay-baited his opponents: during this year’s Republican primary, a Schweikert ad campaign insinuated his opponent was gay, with the text reading “Elijah Norton isn’t being straight with you,” with a picture of Norton standing close to a blurred male. In 2012, a Schweikert campaign mailer claimed then-Republican congressman and Schweikert primary opponent Ben Quayle “goes both ways.”

Schweikert came out with a statement celebrating the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs, adding that the issue is personal because “I was saved from an abortion after a last-minute change of heart by my loving birth mother who gave me up for adoption.” 

Schweikert voted to oppose the certification of Pennsylvania's election results. He reached his decision after "three days with a bunch of constitutional attorneys" who laid out the argument that the electoral college referral did not properly come through the Pennsylvania state legislature.

“We had an entire three, four-inch binder of the fact tree, and they built a great argument on the fact tree," he told Phoenix New Times. 

Schweikert’s Democratic opponent is Jevin Hodge, a Tempe native who has not held public office before. He has worked as the national engagement director for LINK Strategic Partners, a “strategic communications, stakeholder engagement, and social impact consulting firm” and as chair of the Booker T. Washington Child Development Center. 

Hodge is positioning himself as a centrist; he says he looks up to the legacy of Senator John McCain. 

"We must have a representative who takes a pragmatic, fiscally-responsible approach to solving our problems. I’m against wasteful, pork-barrel spending but I am for thoughtful, targeted, impactful investments into Arizona’s economy,” Hodge wrote in a candidate survey. “As a Congressman, I will fight for smart, green investments that make Arizona a place to live, work, and play and that provide good, middle-class jobs for Arizona families to put food on the table." 

Colorado’s 8th 

Colorado gained a seat in 2020 thanks to redistricting. The new swing seat battle pits Mexican-American doctor and Democratic state Assembly member Yadira Caraveo against business owner, dairy farmer, and Republican state Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer. 

Kirkmeyer is among the Republican Congressional candidates seeking to scrub her anti-choice record. 

When she ran for Congress in 2014, her campaign website had a section entitled "Defending the Right to Life: Standing up for the unborn means more than just making speeches. As a County Commissioner, Barbara voted to ban the Plan B abortion bill, and has been a proud and consistent supporter of the Personhood movement, unambiguously defending life from conception." 

But in this election, Kirkmeyer recently removed language saying she would "defend the sanctity of life" from her campaign website and took down a video of her speaking at an anti-abortion rally earlier this year. 

Caraveo, on the other hand, is decidedly pro-choice. According to her campaign website, “In Congress, Yadira will continue her commitment to the families she sees every day in Colorado, building on her work to lower health care costs, address the high cost of housing, combat climate change, protect a woman’s right to choose, and stop Republicans from taking away Americans’ right to vote.”

Both candidates are seeking to court Latino voters, who make up 39% of the new congressional district and have historically supported Democrats in the state. To that end, the Republican National Committee opened a Hispanic Community Center in Thornton to serve as a campaign hub — the first of its kind in Colorado. 

A focus on abortion rights could push Latino voters towards Caraveo, however. A recent poll found that 74% of Latino voters in Colorado believe abortion should remain legal, no matter their personal beliefs on the issue, and that reproductive rights are among the top five priorities for eligible Latino voters in the state for the first time ever. 

The race is extremely close and is drawing national attention and money. Together, the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund and Democrats’ House Majority PAC have dedicated about $10 million to TV ads in Colorado. Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Colorado last week to support Caraveo and other Democratic candidates.

Kansas’s 3rd 

Rep. Sharice Davids, the sole Democrat in the Kansas congressional delegation, was one of the first two Native American women to be elected to Congress in 2018 and the first LGBTQ Native American in Congress. 

Thanks to redistricting, her seat is a lot tougher to defend. 

But her opponent Amanda Adkins’s position on abortion may give her a leg up after voters crushed a proposed state constitutional amendment that would have paved the way for a ban on abortion. Adkins, a business executive and former Chair of the Kansas Republican Party, is trying to present herself as a moderate on abortion rights: she recently published an op-ed in the Kansas City Star saying she did not "support a federal ban on abortion" and believes "it's not Congress' place to impose a national abortion policy on Kansans." 

But when Adkins was chair of the Kansas Republican Party, the organization officially supported "a Human Life Amendment to the U.S. Constitution," and "legislation to make clear the Fourteenth Amendment's protection applies to unborn children." 

Davids is framing the election as a second referendum on abortion. Her campaign has held a news conference and produced ads reminding voters that Adkins was on the losing side of the abortion amendment vote.

Michigan’s 8th

The new 8th Congressional District combines liberal-leaning Flint and Saginaw with conservative Midland, which was last represented by a Democrat in Congress in 1985. 

With the exception of Midland, the new district resembles the old 5th Congressional District that Democrat Dan Kildee has represented since 2013, when he replaced his uncle Dale Kildee. 

Kildee’s challenger for the new seat is Republican Paul Junge, a former deputy district attorney in Ventura, CA; TV news anchor on Fox 47 in Lansing; investigative counsel for Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa; and external affairs adviser for the Trump Administration’s U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Junge lost a bid to unseat Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin in 2020 by less than 4%. 

"My interest was not exclusively in wanting to unseat Elissa Slotkin; my interest was to try and be a conservative voice to the people of Michigan," Junge said in explaining his move to the 8th Congressional District.

Junge faces an uphill battle for the seat with his platform "to fight for the conservative, America First principles that make our country strong and free" and to make a return "to the successful policies of the Trump administration."

Kildee’s campaign is focusing on creating good-paying jobs and raising wages, lowering the cost of health care and prescription drug prices, and ensuring clean drinking water for all. He’s also positioning himself as somewhat of a maverick, emphasizing his willingness to go against members of his own party on issues like increasing the police force. 

North Carolina’s 13th

Last month a federal judge reinstated a 20-week abortion ban in North Carolina, eroding reproductive rights in one of the South’s few remaining safe havens. 

But some North Carolina Democrats believe the ruling could be a “blessing in disguise” if it galvanizes pro-choice voters. Approximately 30,000 residents have registered to vote since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs, with women slightly outnumbering men. 

The abortion rulings could have a significant impact on the race to represent North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, which after redistricting includes Johnston County and parts of Harnett, Wake, and Wayne Counties in the Raleigh area. The Cook Political Report  and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rate the Congressional race as a “Toss-up,” while Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it as “Leans Republican. ”

The district had an open primary as the incumbent, Republican Ted Budd, is vacating the position to run for Senator Richard Burr’s open Senate seat.

After a high stakes and big spending primary, Democratic State Senator Wiley Nickel and Republican Bo Hines advanced to the general election. 

Nickel is a criminal defense attorney who worked on Vice President Al Gore and President Barack Obama’s advance teams. 

The 27-year-old Hines was a long shot candidate: his only professional experience was in his father’s license apparel company and he lived hours outside the district when he announced his candidacy.

Earlier in the election cycle, Hines campaigned for other congressional seats in the state. Voting records in North Carolina show he has voted in only three elections in the state, none of which were primaries.

Hines advanced from the crowded primary field with the support of the Club for Growth—a conservative political action committee that spent $1.2 million in ads to bolster his candidacy—as well as former President Donald Trump, North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz and Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump’s endorsement shocked local Republicans who considered Hines to be a carpetbagger. 

“He’s good-looking, he’s got no experience — so he’s perfect,” Christopher A. Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, told The New York Times.

Before the April primary, Hines released a commercial where he said, “abortion is absolutely murder, and any Republican politician who’s not willing to say that should not be in office.” The day the Supreme Court released its Dobbs decision, Hines said he’d remain “proudly pro-life.”

Since then, Hines has scrubbed his website of any reference to abortion. He is also distancing himself from Trump. Good luck, pal.

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