How to save abortion rights for millions of Americans
With no federal solution incoming, it will require smart investments and feet on the ground
Welcome to a Tuesday edition of Progress Report.
This newsletter is not going to be a total bummer. Instead, I want to outline some feasible, concrete actions that we can take to mitigate some of the horrible things barreling our way. But before we delve into solutions, we have to have a clear-eyed understanding of the problems we face and how we got here.
Stick with me, folks.
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Fridayās Supreme Court decision completed five decades of right-wing attacks on abortion rights and personal freedoms, finally pushing us off the ledge and into this tragic new post-Roe era. It is easy to predict what will happen in the days and weeks and months to come, but the long-term future is rife with uncertainty.
Hereās what weāre looking at in the short term:
In half of the United States, it will soon be illegal to obtain an abortion past the very earliest stages of pregnancy, and in more than a few of those states, termination will be illegal at any point after conception (conservatives are creepy perverts). Technology will provide state authorities unprecedented abilities to monitor for compliance (with the help of tech companies) and force women into giving birth.
Gerrymandered and conservative states will enact increasingly draconian and unpopular limits on individual rights over the urgent protests of most Americans; contraception could be next in some states, while threats to same-sex marriage and even how people engage in sexual intimacy could also be subject to regulation.
All of these things will lead to people being hurt, arrested, and even killed.
Unfortunately, Democratic leaders will avoid are already taking any of the substantial actions available to them, electing to instead encourage us to donate to campaign committees ahead of elections that are largely unwinnable due to gerrymandering, not to mention underhanded Republican tactics that seem to always go unanswered. Maybe theyāll sing again if we donate enough to committees like the DCCC, which just saved the last anti-choice Democrat in Congress.
Itās all painful and bleak, and infinitely more so for low-income Americans ā class warfare is an intrinsic feature of our politics, and the far-right donors that have financed this war know that wealth mitigates harm, in reproductive health and everything else.
Now that weāve established the stakes and whatās to come, letās look at what can be done to ease the pain and at least modestly diminish the damage.
1. Mutual Aid
Once the dust settles and judges make their rulings in a series of court cases, there are likely to be very stringent bans on abortion care in roughly half of the United States. Some states will even have total bans, with no exceptions for rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.
In states that have abruptly cut off the last vestiges of reproductive freedom, abortion funds will be working overtime to send women to states where they can safely and legally obtain an abortion. Those states are likely to be overwhelmed by new patients, and though many of them have already declared themselves ready to take on the tragic influx, the reality is that itās going to be a struggle even in the bluest of states. That makes aiding the abortion providers in those states absolutely essential, as well.
I have to imagine that millions of dollars have been directed at these organizations since Friday ā weāve raised over $60k for them here at Progress Report ā but today I want to highlight one particularly innovative group that will need long-term support as it grows: Minnesota-based non-profit Just The Pill.
The organization has been providing telehealth appointments and mailing mifepristone and misoprostol, colloquially known as abortion pills, to people in Minnesota, Montana, and Wyoming. Just The Pill, which began with mobile clinics, is now expanding that service in the wake of the Dobbs decision so that it can serve as many people as possible.
Late last week, I exchanged emails with Dr. Julie Amaon, the medical director of Just The Pill, to get some more details about how the operation works and its plans to make care available in this uncharted new era.
Progress Report: You serve three states right now ā does that mean you send medication to three states, or only work with people dialing in from those states?
Amoan: Medication can be provided to those who live in Minnesota, Montana and Wyoming. Or it can be provided to those who can travel to one of those three states, such as people from Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, and Nebraska.
The fall of Roe triggers automatic bans in a number of states, including Wyoming. How do you anticipate adjusting and continuing to provide care for people in Wyoming?
The Wyoming trigger ban, per Guttmacher, needs legislation action to take place, so it doesnāt take effect right when Roe falls. There are no brick and mortar abortion clinics in-state except the one that was recently firebombed. Ultimately, once legislation is passed to enact the trigger ban, folks from Wyoming will have to travel to Colorado for care.
As more states ban abortion or make it much more difficult, do you anticipate hearing from and working to help people from additional states?
Undoubtedly, yes. Our mobile clinics will travel to states including Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico āĀ states where abortion is likely to remain legal and borders states where abortion is restricted or banned.
Our mobile clinics will travel to parts of these states based on where the need is greatest. Our intention is to provide access to patients who are unable to access services in their state. By traveling along the borders of states with abortion bans, we can reduce travel burdens and make abortion more accessible.
Are you concerned that states are enacting laws that would make it illegal to send abortion pills to addresses within their borders? Are there any workarounds?
The legal landscape regarding abortion is always changing. The advantage of our mobile clinics is that we can quickly adjust to state legislation, and provide medication abortion along the borders of states with new restrictions.
Proposed "abortion travel bans" that restrict the ability of people to travel outstate to access medication abortion are most likely unconstitutional [ed note: AG Merrick Garland said on Friday that states cannot ban mailing abortion pills].
How will the mobile clinic work with states where abortion is banned?
If your state of residence bans access to medication abortion, you can travel to another safe state to have a telehealth appointment.Ā
You would then get the medication by pick-up at the mobile clinic, or if you are in a state without mobile clinics, you would wait 1-2 days to have the medication mailed to a pick-up location. If you are choosing the procedural abortion, you can travel to a mobile clinic and receive care.
2. Ballot Initiatives
The Michigan state legislature passed a law to ban abortion in 1931, a moratorium that stopped being enforced when the Supreme Court guaranteed reproductive freedom in 1973. In anticipation of the Dobbs decision, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer sued to block the implementation of the law in April, and a judge agreed to put it on pause in May.
Whitmer urged the Michigan Supreme Court to take up abortion rights and clear up the confusion after Roe was overturned on Friday. But even if the Democratic-leaning court does decide that the state constitution protects bodily autonomy, one bad election cycle could lead to a conservative majority that reads the law very differently.
A broad coalition of non-profits and activist groups are unwilling to take that risk, so theyāre now working together on a ballot initiative that would explicitly codify abortion rights in the state constitution. They have until July 11th to gather at least 425,059 signatures, and given the troubles that have plagued that process in the state this year, theyāre likely going to need perhaps double that number.
Given the urgency and enthusiasm theyāre seeing from volunteers, it seems quite doable.
Activists in Vermont are also campaigning for a ballot initiative to insert abortion rights protections into the state constitution, though it should be a far less dramatic process than whatās going down in Michigan. In February, the legislature signed off on Proposal 5, sending the constitutional amendment to the November ballot.
About 70% of people in Vermont are pro-choice, so the only real danger is a low turnout election. Thatās probably unlikely, though, as Sen. Patrick Leahyās retirement means that the state will have a rare open US Senate election.
On Monday, the legislature in California voted to place a similar constitutional amendment on the November ballot. According to the AP, the right to an abortion is currently only protected by the state constitutionās guaranteed right to privacy, the same mechanism that Samuel Alito and his demented friends struck down last Friday.
As in Vermont and Michigan, the California ballot initiative would explicitly insert the right to abortion into the state constitution. While it wasnāt that long ago that liberal Californians dropped the ball by allowing the Prop 8 ban on marriage equality to pass in 2008, a sea change in public opinion and a fair number of competitive Congressional elections should drive them out to the polls en masse this time around.
Things are going to be dicier in Kansas. This summer, right-wing anti-choice forces are aiming to pass a ballot amendment that would remove abortion protections from the state constitution. They only need 50% to pass it, and while a poll in February found that more than 60% of voters were opposed to outlawing abortion, the far-right is hoping that by putting the initiative on the August primary ballot, theyāll catch people sleeping and pass their dreadful amendment.
Passing the amendment wouldnāt immediately outlaw abortion, but it would open up the opportunity for the Republican supermajority in the legislature to make quick work of it.
3. State Elections
This will not be a delusional āvote harderā fantasy, because as I wrote above, gerrymandering has put a lot of important seats and states out of reach this year.
It didnāt have to be this way; after 2018, Democrats looked prime to flip legislative chambers in North Carolina, Texas, Pennsylvania, and several other states. They fell tragically short, which in turn limits the number of opportunities to tangibly impact abortion policy this November. Still, while a blue wave has been all but ruled out, there are still a fair number of races that will have an outsized impact on the future of reproductive rights in a handful of swing states.
Headlining this list are the governor races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Democrats hold the governorās mansion in each state, and in the latter two, they have well-liked leaders running for re-election.
Each stateās legislature is likely to continue to be held by Republicans ā Wisconsin is a guaranteed lock ā and should a Republican pull off an upset for one of those three top jobs, theyāre guaranteed to green light major abortion restrictions. In fact, a trigger law already went into effect in Wisconsin, and itās only Gov. Tony Evers and Attorney General Josh Kaulās promise to offer clemency to anyone arrested for seeking an abortion that is keeping reproductive rights alive in the state.
If passed, Michiganās constitutional amendment initiative may make it too hard to completely ban abortion, but there are plenty of restrictions that the GOP would likely try to slap on there to make accessing care more onerous.
In terms of state legislatures, itās crucial that Democrats donāt allow Republicans to win a worryingly achievable supermajority in North Carolina, where Gov. Roy Cooper is currently blocking any restrictions on abortion. This one hurts, as Democrats should have flipped at least one chamber in 2020 after getting fairer districts thanks to a decision handed down by the state Supreme Court.
Speaking of courts, there are a number of critical elections that could swing the balance of power and the future of reproductive rights at the state level.
Democrats in North Carolina are clinging to a one-seat margin on the state Supreme Court after a heartbreakingly close loss in 2020. They have to defend two seats this year, and should they fail to keep both, the GOP is likely to use the court to kill abortion protections. Theyāre also going to pass some extreme gerrymanders in new maps due next cycle, putting a very purple state out of reach for up to eight more years.
Democrats also need to hold a one-seat margin in both Michigan, where the Supreme Court holds real sway right now over abortion protections, and Illinois. They are defending one of two seats on the ballot in Michigan, where everything is up for grabs.
In Illinois the party is likely to keep a trifecta, but the court is a bit more uncertain. There are two seats at play after a Democratic justice lost a retention election in 2020 in a race skewed by billionaire Ken Griffin, the financial godfather of the Illinois GOP. Heās trying to spend his way to swiping the third districtās seat outright this year, and tonight, a number of very unqualified Republicans will vie for the nomination there.
Meanwhile, in Ohio, Democrats have a shot at flipping the court, though losing the retiring Republican Chief Justice Maureen OāConnor, a moderate who sided with Dems in the redistricting fiasco this year, significantly hurts their chance of enjoying any kind of parity if they lose both elections. There are three seats up for grabs, including one held by the laughably corrupt Pat DeWine, son of Gov. Mike DeWine.
Wisconsinās Supreme Court is also 4-3 conservative, which played a huge role in redistricting this year, but Democrats will have to wait until next year for their flip opportunity.
As for prosecutors and district attorneys, a number of Democrats in blue cities tucked inside of red states have sworn not to enforce abortion bans. In places such as Maricopa County, which holds a majority of Arizonaās population, DA elections will determine whether millions of people can access care despite state bans. Democratic candidate Julie Gunnigle has promised to not prosecute people for seeking abortions if she wins in November.
There are a number of legislative seats worth touching on, but this is edition of the newsletter already pretty lengthy, Iāll leave that for another evening.
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