Don't get cocky, Biden has some big issues to fix
Forget polls, there are real signs of weakness
Welcome to the big Sunday edition of Progressives Everywhere!
Now that we are less than two months out from Election Day, every single day matters. There are lawsuits, campaign tactics, polls, and actual vote totals galore to discuss, then concrete actions we can each take. In the comments of this email, let us know how you plan on pitching in and how other people can get involved!
Let’s get started!
But first: Thank you to donors Jayme and Edward!
It’s Up To Us
There are two big stories that we need to discuss today. While I generally use this space to zero in on local and state races, today we’re going to focus largely on demographics and the urgent need to not only get out the vote but also ensure that Democrats are indeed operating as the inclusive party it professes to be. Doing so is the only way we win in 2020 and in the years to come.
First, the worst has come to pass in Florida: On Friday, the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the Republicans’ Jim Crow poll tax. This decision thwarts the will of 65% of voters in the state and will likely disenfranchise over 775,000 voters, a majority of whom are people of color.
In a way, this is not surprising at all — the courts have been hostile to voting rights, plain and simple. Further, five of the six judges who sided with Republicans and Gov. Ron DeSantis on the mass disenfranchisement were appointed by Donald Trump. The courts are their last line of defense against fair democracy and they’re using them at every turn.
As I outlined on Wednesday, Democrats are already flailing in some parts of Florida, especially in down-ballot races. Now, the most blatant and far-reaching voter suppression scheme in the country is only going to make things that much more difficult. What can we do about it?
The Florida Rights Restoration Coalition is raising money to pay off the ridiculous fines and fees that are preventing nearly a million people from exercising their constitutional rights. The voter registration deadline in Florida is October 5th, so we have just three weeks to help as many people as possible. You can donate to the crucial work being done by the FRCC below:
And now, our other urgent situation: Joe Biden has a real problem with young and Latinx voters.
It was no secret that Biden was not the first choice presidential candidate of either demographic (where there is a lot of crossover, of course). Instead, Biden won the nomination with a coalition of moderate white suburban voters and older Black voters. It was a disappointment for progressives, but polls indicated that young and Latinx voters are willing to come on board with the Biden campaign — if they feel as if their concerns were addressed and included in policymaking.
Unfortunately, the Biden campaign and its constellation of related PACs have instead hired Republican talking heads to focus on Latinx outreach and pandered with Animal Crossing signs and unbearable comic book-themed videos. I mean, look at this:
The only policy named in that entire flaccid video is a $15 minimum wage. They don’t even mention a Green New Deal, instead tossing out the vague, toothless “climate champion” line. For the first time in generations, a majority of people 18-29 live with their parents — perhaps it’d be smarter to acknowledge student debt, sinfully high healthcare costs, police brutality and systemic racism, and a job market that has systematically shut out young people from advancement?
Yes, Biden is leading overall in the polls, but that can be misleading. He has to shore up every demographic, and he’s slumping especially hard with Latinx voters. The numbers are not pretty, with polling showing that anywhere between 45 and 65 percent support Biden. Even the high-water mark is lower than what Hillary Clinton achieved in her losing effort in 2016. Things are even worse in Florida. And as 2018 proved, we desperately need a motivated Latinx voter base to turn out in order to win.
Hispanic turnout two years ago jumped by 74 percent from the 2014 midterms — more than for any other major racial or ethnic group — according to voting data compiled by the Elections Project. (The growth rate for Black and white voters was about half that.) These voters favored Democrats by a whopping 47 points in 2018, with just a quarter of Hispanic voters casting ballots for Republicans, the Pew study shows. That was a nine-point gain on Mrs. Clinton’s margin in 2016.
Mr. Biden is up on Mr. Trump by anywhere from 20 to 32 points among Hispanic voters nationwide, according to recent polls. That is considerably weaker than Mrs. Clinton’s advantage, and far below the Democrats’ wider lead in 2018.
This is even more important in this presidential election, where many of the biggest swing states have very large (or at least sizable) Hispanic populations — just look at Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. Actually, looking at Arizona might be painful, as experts there say the effort has been sub-optimal.
Now, the Hispanic community is not some homogenous group or voting bloc. It’s a diverse group with different backgrounds, values, and living situations. But without putting in the effort to understand them, you’re not going to have a chance of really motivating them.
The Biden campaign has begun to spend more heavily on outreach, so they get credit for that, but this late in the game, it’s going to have to be outside groups that carry the ball. As noted by Chuck Rocha, the architect of Bernie Sanders’ huge support in Hispanic communities, less than one percent of all outside Super PAC donations have gone to Latinx-focused groups. And all throughout the year, Trump has poured money into his outreach, creating a steep hill to climb.
Many of the states at play have been pummeled by COVID-19, and in large part thanks to the arrogance and maliciousness of Republican governors and lawmakers. Unfortunately, the need to maintain social distancing cuts into the normally robust volunteer GOTV operations, which makes investing and engaging with Latinx voters in other ways even more crucial. Not only to win back the White House, but to defend Congressional swings seats won in large part due to Latinx turnout and to flip legislatures in swing states like Texas and Arizona.
Rocha notes in a conversation with the New York Times that it’s going to require a huge investment. TV, digital, radio, billboard ads. Face-to-face meetings and events with voters, where possible. Hiring people who know how to have those conversations. Micro-targeting for all this outreach to send the right messages.
It’s going to take as much muscle and money as possible to win. And we have to win. We will not survive another term of this mush-brained dictator.
Can You Pitch In?
Together, we’ve raised nearly $1.5 million now for progressive candidates and causes, as well as another $1.5 million for bail funds and civil rights organizations. That’s $3 million raised!
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Elections and Voting Rights
Texas: This is a big twist — and for once, it’s good election news in Texas! Late Friday, a state judge ruled that the clerk in Harris County, home to Houston and the third most populous county in the US, can send absentee ballot applications to all voters.
Texas’s Secretary of State refuses to allow everyone to vote by mail, so only voters over the age of 65, those who are unable to make it to the voting location, or won’t be in town on Election Day can vote absentee.
Still, given the ongoing pandemic, far more people figure to be eligible to vote absentee this year. As such, Harris County’s clerk (who runs elections there) planned on sending ballot applications to all registered voters.
Republicans filed a lawsuit to stop the plan in late August, which led to the clerk to step back from the wide mailings pending a court decision.
Now, they can get back to sending those ballot requests, which will hopefully make it easier for many people to vote across the state.
North Carolina: General election voting has already begun in North Carolina and the numbers are looking good — with a few asterisks, of course.
Just as Democrats have a huge lead in absentee ballots requested, they’re dominating in returned ballots:
Here’s one of the asterisks: Democrats are having their ballots rejected at a much higher rate.
Each of the ballots was rejected for incomplete witness information, which is exactly what the ACLU feared when it sued to remove the requirement that a third party witness signs each absentee ballot. The legislature had already agreed to reduce the requirement from two witness signatures (which is absurd!) to just one witness. Unfortunately, a panel of state judges rejected the request to eradicate it altogether.
Colorado: Not only is Louis DeJoy’s USPS working to disenfranchise voters by slowing down mail delivery, it’s now sending voters misleading information that could confuse them and discourage them from voting, as well.
The latest example is in Colorado, where Democratic Secretary of State Jenna Griswold filed a lawsuit over a USPS mailer that’s filled with false statements.
There is a litany of problems with the postcard, but to boil it down, it told voters they had to request absentee ballots no later than 15 days before the election (all voters get ballots in Colorado already) and ignores all the other ways people can turn in their votes.
They’d already begun to send them out, but last night, a court last night issued a temporary restraining order to stop any further mailing of the card.
Wisconsin: Thursday night, the whacked-out right-wing State Supreme Court put a screeching halt to the electoral process. County clerks were in the process of sending out over one million absentee ballots to voters who requested them, but the Supreme Court ordered them to pause so that it can decide whether the Green Party’s presidential ticket should be added to the ballot.
This is a potential catastrophe, not just for Democrats, but more importantly, Democracy. Already, nearly 380,000 ballots have been sent to voters, and in those cases, counties could have to reprint and resend them, creating an absolute mess.
Even worse, a whopping 2.3 million ballots already printed out would have to be reprinted if the decision is made to change who is on the ballot.
Making matters even more complicated is the state law that requires counties to send out the ballots by September 17th, which is now less than a week away.
Simply put, county officials are saying they’re going to be in big trouble if the court winds up following through with the change. They’re panicking.
What’s even more frustrating is that the Green Party candidate for president is Howie Hawkins. He’s a perennial gadfly candidate who used to continuously run for office in and around Syracuse when I was a student there over a decade ago.
Here’s a taste of what’s going on there:
Ohio: A judge in Franklin County ruled that the state must accept absentee ballot requests sent in over email.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose has been super-stringy and, some might argue, making up laws in order to disenfranchise as many absentee voters as possible. As I’ve noted, he has refused to allow more than one ballot dropbox per county, arguing that the state law doesn’t explicitly allow him to do so, though there’s no clause saying that he can’t.
Similarly, LaRose argued that the law didn’t allow him to accept applications via email. In this case, the court ruled against him.
LaRose also suggested adding email applications this close to the election would create a lot more work for his office, as if that should be a reason to disenfranchise people.
Of course, he will be appealing, using scare tactics and ridiculous arguments like this one: “[The decision] rolls out the red carpet to Russian hackers – painting a giant bullseye on the back of our election system and upending the significant progress Ohio has made on elections cybersecurity.”
So what are Russians going to do, request ballots? There’s a lot of information required to do that, and it still doesn’t actually count as a vote!
Quibis:
This is the most 2020 Brooklyn story I’ve read yet.
Again, we’ve got to go all-in on Florida — Trump is already doing exactly that.
There’s a good miniseries on the Challenger disaster that goes up on Netflix later this week. The risks taken by NASA officials and corruption of the Republicans trying to cover it up will… well, I’d say astound you, but we live in a country run by Donald Trump.
My wife and I are catsitting for the next month. So far, it mostly sits on our windowsill. Does this mean it’s happy? I did not grow up with cats.
Real Quick…
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